Ten Predictions for 2010

It’s that time of the year again when we review the year just passed and look ahead to the next one. I haven’t gotten to the reviewing part yet. Looking back on the frenzy that was 2009 is still a little bit like trying to figure out what happened during an eight-day Ibogaine bender; it will become clear, in bits and pieces, over the next week or so. In the meantime, here’s ten prophecies to file away and pull out later in lieu of having me say “I told you so”:

1. Noynoy Aquino will win a controversial victory in the 2010 Presidential Election.

The poll automation will not go well and will result in irregularities in many areas, and outright failure in some. This is not because there is anything wrong with the system, but because many people have a strong interest in seeing it fail, and will do what they can to encourage problems. Most (but by no means all) of these damaging interests are Aquino backers. Manchurian Candidate that he is, Aquino himself will not be responsible for these troubles, and will most likely be unaware of them – which will leave him in the unenviable position of either remaining silent on the issue and appearing to condone the fraud, or openly questioning the validity of his own election.  Of course, the former course will be the lesser of two evils, and that is the one which the power elite controlling him will direct him to take, since they are confident in their belief (confidence which, at this point anyway, is entirely justified) in keeping a handle on things. Unfortunately for Aquino, it will instantly reveal much of his “clean” mystique for the bogus P.R. it has been all along, and cast a pall over his presidency from the outset.

2. The capricious decisions of the COMELEC in disqualifying political parties and legitimate candidates before the elections will bury the agency for years to come under a tidal wave of election protests.

This doesn’t strike me as a particularly bold prediction, but COMELEC’s actions in disqualifying parties like Ang Ladlad and candidates like Nick Perlas and Danton Remoto have gone beyond all reason, and have been an arrogant slap in the face of the democratic proposition that the people, not some appointed bunch of idiots, should be the arbiters of who is or is not a legitimate contestant in an election.

3. The precedent set by the Supreme Court by its bizarre reversal of its own ruling on the cityhood question will resurrect dozens of old and supposedly resolved political cases, with deep implications for the country.

Key among these will be the 1997 PIRMA ruling, which prevented a lifting of the constitutional ban on presidential re-election; a reversal of this will be hotly pursued by the Lopez-led power axis behind the Aquino presidency. Noynoy Aquino will, for the first time, begin hearing himself compared to Gloria Arroyo.

4. Korina Sanchez will get pissed off and jump ship from ABS-CBN when it finally dawns on her that nobody has any intention of letting hubby Mar Roxas do a damned thing as Vice President, a la Doy Laurel.

She will become a fixture on GMA, as the bitter media voice of opposition to the Aquino administration. Mar, for his part, will not be able to give much attention to this tricky situation, since he will be busy for at least the first couple years of his term dealing with election protests from Loren Legarda, and possibly also Edu Manzano.

5. There will be no substantial peace talks with the representatives of the Bangsamoro, and unrest in Mindanao will increase.

It’s a foregone conclusion that peace in Mindanao is not in the best interests of the new Kamag-Anak, and since the candidate himself has expressed no particular feelings on the issue – in fact, has not indicated that he actually has much awareness or understanding of it at all – expect exactly zero to be done to move the country toward resolving the long-standing conflict.

6. An initiative for Charter Change will be started in the House of Representatives.

The bugaboo that the anti-GMA people all fear will indeed raise its head, but this should come as no surprise to anyone. The Charter Change issue has been raised umpteen times already, and would be regardless of whether GMA was in Congress or not (she will be). It’s an annual event. But of course it will not accomplish anything more than the others before it have, namely, only tying up the entire Legislature in meaningless wrangling while other important business is unattended.

7. There will be at least two destructive typhoons that will cause destruction and human loss on the same scale as Ondoy and Pepeng somewhere in the country in the coming year.

I would consider it lucky if it’s only two. And if the storms do not hit the Manila or central Luzon area, since they will still be trying to figure out how to clean up from the 2009 storms by the time the next ones arrive.

8. The Senate will busy itself with “investigations in aid of legislation” of at least three celebrity-related scandals.

No relevant legislation will be forthcoming.

9. Manny Pacquiao will beat Floyd Mayweather, Jr. like an unproductive hooker, and will win at least one other fight.

There will be controversy concerning the performance of the “Lupang Hinirang” each time.

10. 2,000 people will still leave the country for greener pastures every day, just as they always have.

Only this year, a significant proportion of those will be foreign residents who have lived here for a number of years and will finally say to hell with it. There is only so much misery and moral wrong a person can face before the nice weather and cheap rent becomes a poor return on the emotional investment. This will, however, only be an indication and not the cause of the evaporation of FDI in the coming year.

Naturally, I wouldn’t mind at all if I was wrong about any or all of these things, but certain signs are hard to ignore. We’ll see what happens.

Happy holidays, everyone. Enjoy them while you can.

About bkritz

I'm a writer, and I do things my own way. That might sound cool to you, unless you're one of the people who actually knows me, in which case you're probably shaking your head in exasperation at the depth of that understatement.
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42 Responses to Ten Predictions for 2010

  1. Chino says:

    Yep. These are likely to be accurate. Basically, nothing will change.

  2. ilda says:

    Wow! You must have been in the country that long now to notice the never-ending cycle of man-made misery, hehe 🙂

    • BenK says:

      Five years before the mast, as it were. One starts to get certain impressions.

    • BongV says:

      Next year the predictions become – “another ho-hum year in the Philippines, new (and old) faces, same old scripts” 🙂

      • jethernandez says:

        Ano ba naman yan Bong… nagdala ka dito ng stalker (EL BARAKO)… me crush ata sa ‘yo yun eh…. pahipo mo na kasi… hehehehe

      • BongV says:

        jet..

        it’s good to see the reasoning on the “other side”.

        it’s a reality check – and an indicator of how far behind the Philippines is when people do the same things and expect the same results 🙂

        e di, natigil si Ayn Rand mo. kailangan mo uling mag-emote ala teleserye on ABS-CBN… mwa hahahaha 🙂

  3. UP n grad says:

    The prediction about the two destructive typhoons : the typhoons will hit the Philippines by surprise. Pinoys-in-Pinas will be surprised at the inches-water dumped so fast or on the number of houses destroyed. Pinoys-in-Pinas will be surprised and angry that the government agencies are not prepared. Pinoys-in-Pinas will be surprised at the floods and why things have not changed.

  4. UP n grad says:

    It is saddening to anticipate another Aquino presidency, but the prediction is believable. Another old-blood old-school oligarch-Aquino will make for blahh-unexciting-years at best.

    The NoyNoyistas will (in my prediction) be surprised at the lethargic years and they will moan and groan against an oppositionist congress who do not pursue the BA3-plans for his first 2 years in office. The NoyNoyistas will not see the connection that NoyNoy gets elected without people knowing what his priority-actions are.

    No platform, no well-enunciated statements of priorities, plus 43%-or-less wins Malacanang, and Pilipinas 2011 is same-oh same-oh same-oh a non-performing state at best. Except for those surprising typhoons, a surprising maritime disaster, and two or three heavy-casualty terrorist attacks.

  5. Homer says:

    Just as I thought…..more despair and disappointment in 2010.

    I wish i could say something based on positivity and hope…..but I can’t…Not anymore.

    Everytime we think we’re getting close to hitting rock bottom, we still manage to sink even lower.

    Ang galing ng Pinoy!

  6. benign0 says:

    I wish i could say something based on positivity and hope…..but I can’t…Not anymore.

    Mr Homer, there is hope, but only if we find evidence of things being done differently in the Philippines.

    The fact that predictions like these could be made does indeed indicate that there is none of that real hope at the moment.

    • Homer says:

      Allow me to reach deep inside whatever ounces of hope I have left to wish you and your colleagues all the best in finding that EVIDENCE of things being done differently here.

      The next (and more difficult) task would be to get the word out to an ignorant populace that refuses to listen. I honestly don’t know how you guys are gonna do it, but you’ve got my applause on your efforts.

  7. lee says:

    bilib ako kay ben, pati panghuhula kinareer na, tirhan mo naman ng raket si madam auring,pasko naman.

  8. lee says:

    this noynoylistas and whoever wish him to be pres, the same people will cry and try to kick him out later, let see… lets wait!

    • BenK says:

      Unfortunately, I think in all seriousness that is also a strong prediction, and it’s one of the consequences of an Aquino presidency I fear. When the support for him beforehand has so little basis in substance, it will evaporate very quickly. It most definitely will, because he hasn’t told people what to expect, and so their expectations are no more than products of their own imaginations and are almost certainly unrealistic. His song & dance about “unifying the people” is already a bunch of bull — sure, he’s way out in front of everyone else in any poll that’s taken, and yet can’t even claim a majority. I think the last figure I heard was 46%, so if that is accurate (a big IF), that still means that 54% are NOT in favor of him. So much for unity.

      • lee says:

        i really dont believe in survey, what is survey anyway? who does the survey? the answer is very simple and very obvious.

        “he hasn’t told people what to expect, and so their expectations are no more than products of their own imagination and are almost certainly unrealistic”

        youre right.

        “His song & dance about “unifying the people” is already a bunch of bull”

        obviously.

      • dennis_2980 says:

        It’s a lie because I saw it on TV when Noynoy was interviewed about his plans , you can check in the Net and even gibo imitated Noynoy’s objective for the LGU . Perhaps you just don’t know or just don’t listen ,because if you listen or watch you ought to have something to disagree whether you like his plans or not … perhaps itt would just be easier for you to say nothing . I suggest you should point comments on real facts not accusation to ,at least , have little sense with your conversation here . Not just Noynoy but also to other candidates … you should discuss issues not personal defects of a person ,otherwise , you will be accused of being not inteliigent with only purpose to bring down a person not the system they wish to give to our people . Dapat objective para may patutunguhan ang bansa natin … if Noynoy or any other candidates does not meet your criteria then options can be available…
        Kung sabihin nyo walang platform si Noynoy then dapat sabihin nyo rin kung ano ang plataforma ng ibang kandidato para may option ang mga bisita nyo especially ang mag wala pang kandidato ..

      • BenK says:

        I’ve seen at least two interviews (or rather, one interview and one forum) where the subject of LGU’s was raised, and my impression was that Noynoy’s grasp of the issue and his response was something that fell far short of authoritative. If you had a different impression, then perhaps you could share with us the specifics of his plan, as you understand them, and demonstrate where my impression was in error.

        This is what the LP platform specifically says with regard to the objectives for LGUs:

        “Local autonomy is key to national development. Without local autonomy, integrated national development cannot be fully achieved. Conversely, there can be no genuine local autonomy without national development. Both local autonomy and integration must be guaranteed and pursued together while respecting and balancing the powers and responsibilities of local governments on one hand and the national government on the other.

        In order to achieve this two-pronged approach, the Party believes that:

        Decentralization must be strengthened. Powers of local governments must be recognized to include not only those powers delegated to them by law but also those powers in furtherance of the general welfare and those not otherwise prohibited by law. The active nature of local governments must be encouraged.

        The private and corporate nature of local governments must be further emphasized for the purpose of allowing local governments to generate revenues. This will effectively lessen dependence on national government thereby achieving real fiscal and economic autonomy.

        Democratization at the local level must be enhanced and institutionalized. The different venues for popular participation in the Local Government Code of 1991 must be fully implemented and other non-mandated modes explored and harnessed.”

        What’s missing in all of that is HOW things are to be “strengthened”, “recognized”, “encouraged”, “emphasized”, “enhanced”, and “institutionalized”. It’s simply a motherhood statement, sounds nice, but no specifics. It’s not a plan.

      • jethernandez says:

        dennis

        based on your account would you say that there’s anything concrete about Noynoy’s policy directions? please enlighten us. perhaps the link of what you’re saying.

        … so what’s the issue?

        let me repost a response on survey

        jun de la cruz

        I am not here to CONVINCE THE “TAONG BAYAN”. I gain nothing because your VIRTUAL TAONG BAYAN is just an illusion. Katarantaduhan yang phrase na VOX POPULI, VOX DEI… the voice of god is the voice of the people… If you’re referring to the OPERATIONAL DEFINITION of Noynoy’s taong bayan… where he’s referring to the 1,800 population samples defined by the Mahar Mangahas’ SWS survey… your syllogism is already flawed. Why?

        1. Philippines’ population = 89 million (1,800/ 89,000,000… try it in your scientific calculator)
        2. Total number of islands = 1,107 islands
        3. Philippines is divided into 17 regions, 80 provinces, 120 cities, 1,511 municipalities and 42,008 barangays. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippines#Cities)

        If the surveys are “scientifically done” as some of the pro-noynoy would define them to be, the sampling method is questionable. Moreover, these surveys have been done by commercial institutions. Have you ever questioned why are they conducting these surveys and who are paying these survey institutions?

        Sorry Jun… hindi lang pala katangahan ang pagboto kay Noynoy… isa ring pagiging ignorante. I’m not here to convince you or anybody else NOT TO VOTE FOR NOYNOY… your behavior and your method of thinking is a hopeless case of plain and simple ignorance.

  9. Joe America says:

    The tendency of too many people is to kiss the arse of those with power, occasionally complaining behind the curtains, and stomp on those with little power. Methinks it should be a tad different, pushing back at the power mongers and respecting the rest.

    Nice set of predictions.

    Joe

  10. dennis_2980 says:

    Item # 1 … it is very unlikely that the one who is mostly likely to win , is the one accuse to create problem during the election … this a very ridiculous , very immature and very ,very crazy analysis . The group whose ratings in the survey is way ,way ahead ,the group whose political machineries are at the very least , the group whose political influence are held by the few powerless politicians and the group who has no substantial financial support are the ones being accused to sabotage the election results …. for christ sake …what kind of psychological problem the person who wrote this had …

    • BenK says:

      On the contrary, the LP has a very large and efficient organization and they are extremely well-funded. Ask them, they’ll tell you the same thing. They’re not the ones that worry me, it’s their supporters.

      What I said exactly was: “…many people have a strong interest in seeing it fail, and will do what they can to encourage problems. Most (but by no means all) of these damaging interests are Aquino backers.” That is a prediction based on the violent reactions those people tend to make to any sort of disagreement with their point of view (such as questioning one’s mental health); those reactions are an indication that there are few limits to what they consider acceptable in ensuring victory.

      Consider it a warning as much as a prediction, and one that is given equally to all candidates and their supporters. People will be watching the way this election is conducted, and any screwing around with it is not going to go unchallenged.

  11. dennis_2980 says:

    That’s why I’m questioning the no.1 analysis because it is contradictory and unrealistic . LP may have fundings but absolutely not extreme , as I can observe with the supports from LGU , in fact they were question by other camps on their winnability because of their very poor local supports .In Bacolod alone , no popular mayoral candidate from LP ,same also with other major cities and town all over the country . With these , how can they be able to stage such chaos ? A warning must have basis or grounds to be considered valid … if the election fails it would most likely favor GMA since it would mean a continuance of her presidency . if GMA cannot function due to her candidacy , Noli would likely assume ,therefore , there is no sense for LP or its backers to do such act …
    Kaya medyo malabo masyado ang analysis ,I think kailangan itong irewordings .

    • BenK says:

      That makes no sense at all. No, actually, that tends to support my prediction — if the LP does not have candidates in many areas, there is no mechanism on which to build support for Noynoy, meaning it is more likely that his backers will want to try to find some other advantage. Note that I am not saying the LP party, I’m saying his backers — people like you, and the big business interests behind him like the Lopezes.

      Bringing GMA into it is a red herring. I didn’t predict a FAILED election, I predicted a CONTROVERSIAL one. Maybe something along the lines of 2004, but if so, that’s as far as any similarity goes.

  12. dennis_2980 says:

    like me… who am I ? … like Lopezez ? is there any records in history that they’ve done something not nice ? They have been a victim instead .. during the marcos Era and even GMA’s time..i.e Meralco issue… This is not about me or Noynoy but this is all about the logic behind your analysis on item #1 . Masyadong malayo pare , palitan mo na yan.. No.1 lang naman e …
    Finding some other advantage ? I think they don’t need one , because they are absolutely in the advantage now with the ratings of almost twice the second placer ..
    You didn’t predict failed election ? You even said it as an outright failure .

    • BenK says:

      I get a Meralco bill every month that is written evidence of the Lopezes doing something not nice, as far as that goes. I have a difference of opinion from you concerning what happened with regard to them during the Marcos era (I don’t know enough of the backstory to say the same about GMA’s term, so I’ll have to take your word for it). Busting their monopoly was one of the few things Marcos did that made a lot of sense.

  13. dennis_2980 says:

    may nakalimutan pa ko , Bringing GMA into it is a red herring …. I can understand you for being defensive and I respect that , however , this is not about attacking GMA , this is about the reality …kahit sino pa ang tatanungin nating expert ,lawyers,justices,judges,congressman,senators or any legal luminaries … GMA would benifit from it , if there is any failure of elections .

    • BenK says:

      That is a straw man. I said, exactly, that there will be a failure of elections in some areas. If you wish to pursue the argument that this will benefit GMA, fine, you brought her into it, explain how a failure of elections in some areas, if my prediction as stated comes to pass, benefits her.

  14. dennis_2980 says:

    Ang dami naman , simple lang naman ang sabi ko , that I was able to watch the interview of Noynoy that he was able to explain his plans on the National TV in complete opposite sa sinabi na wala … but ngayon meron na … that’s all I want lang naman … I don’t care whether you like it or not . Pwede namang panoorin sa You tube iyan e … from part 1 to part 4 sa interview niyan along with several personalities from the local government units gaya ni Mayor Hagedorn at iba pa ….
    The concrete plans is not so clear not even the likes of gibo , who had publicly stated his plans on LGU , that he will give incentives to good performing LGU but at the end of his speech he said he still has to find out what is the problem of LGU . At that skills of Gibo being magaling at matalino ,being a congressman for 9 years ,being a cabinet for 3 years , he still not able to figure out what’s the problem of the LGU ? With this , I don’t think , we should expect everything can be answered by the presidentiables … not even by the brightest of them all .

    • dennis_2980 says:

      Si noynoy may public viewing sa kanyang mga sagot sa interview at ang kanyang mga plano sa politika , while others are totally Wala but the ironic about it , is that Noynoy was the one being criticized for having no plans at all …hindi ba unusual ito …
      Noynoy was the first to present a written paltform published in the Net , and almost everywhere while other have never presented any not even one , but yet Noynoy was the one being criticized for not having a platform …

      • BenK says:

        I am no longer criticizing Noynoy for not having a platform, because that is obviously not the case. I am criticizing the LP — and transitively, him as the standard-bearer — for having a platform that is insufficient in form and substance, so to speak.

        As far as Gibo’s answer to the LGU question, I agree that I found it less-than-satisfactory as well. However, just because one or more of the other candidates falls short on an issue does not confer an advantage on any other candidate who falls short on the same issue. Noynoy’s responses to the LGU issues were in line with his party’s platform, and as such were lacking in detail and specific objectives.

      • ilda says:

        Hi Dennis

        Even someone from Filipino Voices, a blogsite which is usually littered with Noynoy suppporters wrote something against the LP “platform”.

        Here’s an excerpt from Patricio Mangubat’s blog:

        Even in the issue of ecological preservation, the Social Contract is wanting. It does not say what are the means to actually preserve our natural resources or what would be the role of the people in this.

        The absence of any stand or position regarding agrarian reform nor a review of onerous trade pacts or agreements shows that Noynoy Aquino’s platform is not transformational nor as revolutionary as most of us hope. The platform refuses to make a concrete stand on these vital or core societal issues because probably, it wants to preserve the interests of those behind the party, namely, the landed gentry and Big Business.

        I felt betrayed, simply because I expected a Contract that presents solutions, not motherhood statements or stirring up phrases or sloganeering or emotionally laded ones.

        Noynoy and the rest of his mates need to be more detailed in their plan of action. With all the maids doing all the dirty work around each and everyone of their household, I don’t know why they cannot find the time to brainstorm and come up with something concrete to present to the public.

      • jethernandez says:

        hey ilda…

        come yultide season the chipmunks will always sing “all i want for christmas is my two front teeth”… BASTA IBOBOTO KO SI IGNOY WEDER U LAYK IT OR DOWNT… hehehehe… classic nutcase.

      • BenK says:

        jet,

        Some people don’t get the concept, and I know I’m not the first to point it out, that if you don’t want your points of view challenged, keep them to yourself. I respect Mr. Dennis’ right to vote for Noynoy if that’s his choice, but I think it’s a wrong choice. If he doesn’t want to hear me say that, then he should keep that to himself.

        If his objective is to try to change my mind or point out the error in my view, I respect that, too; otherwise, I wouldn’t give him the opportunity by making my thoughts public. However, raising straw men, responding to tone, attacking the messenger, or offering simple, unsupported contradictions do not a convincing argument make.

  15. benign0 says:

    I am no longer criticizing Noynoy for not having a platform, because that is obviously not the case. I am criticizing the LP — and transitively, him as the standard-bearer — for having a platform that is insufficient in form and substance, so to speak.

    Indeed, as expected, some candidates/parties have stepped up to the challenge to present a platform. Unfortunately for them, once you actually produce a platform, it then becomes subject to evaluation based on certain standards. And an example of how one might apply standards to evaluating these moronic platforms that have so far emerged is something I articulate here. Thus:

    (1) Clear articulation of the current (as-is) situation to serve as a context for Points 2 and 3 below and from which priority ISSUES are identified and defined;

    (2) Clarity of POSITIONS taken on specific issues pertinent to the articulation of situation (Point 1);

    (3) Clarity of ACTIONS to be taken to realise goals based on positions taken on identified issues (Point 2); and,

    (4) Structural/relational coherence of a framework tying together the issues, positions taken, and actions to be implemented identified in Points 1 to 3 above.

    Platforms need to meet the above four criteria to qualify as a well-thought-out manifesto for change befitting the collective intelligence that Pinoys imagine themselves to possess.

    Politicians who think they can just come up with a platform just so they can put a tick in a box and say “done” should think again. The real debate begins once platforms are out.

  16. Kanye West says:

    I have two predictions:

    Noynoy will not win. And then this article will be proven wrong and deemed useless by the end of 2010.

  17. BenK says:

    Five years before the mast, as it were. One starts to get certain impressions.

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