Noynoy Aquino's presidential bid: Write off!

As the easy come popularity of Presidential-Candidate-to-the-Stars Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III spirals into showbiz oblivion — whoops, easy go — it might be worth taking away some lessons learned before we do a final write-off on Noynoy’s brief venture into Camelot.

Queen of Jolog Central Ellen Tordesillas who is normally the quickest to trumpet this-or-that survey result is now a bit sober in her “analysis” of these fine demonstrations of the scientific method:

Ang tanong naman ng marami, bakit bumababa si Noynoy?

Sabi ni Mon Casiple ng Institute for Political and Electoral Reform, maliban sa napakarami ng TV ads ni Villar, magaganda pa at naka-focus. Ang puso raw ay sa mahirap. Kung totoo man yun o hindi, mukhang may naniniwala.

Ang kay Noynoy naman, sabi ni Casiple, walang focus ang mensahe ng kanyang mga TV ads. Maliban sa kanyang mga marangal na magulang at hindi siya magnanakaw, hindi sinasabi kung ano ang konkretong programa.

Inamin naman ni Noynoy na marami pang pagkukulang ang kanyang organisasyon at nangako siyang aayusin.

Unfortunately for those who don’t read Tagalog (trust me, you ain’t missin’ much), I have a very brief translation of the above:

Noynoy Aquino failed to read the situation and dropped the ball. An astute businessman, Manny Villar, grabbed it and ran with it. The latter was pretty much in his entrepeneurial element — he siezed market share in the emerging market of thinking voters.

Short and sweet, folks. There really isn’t much to be analysed other than to ask the obvious question now:

Would you entrust the Philippine Government to some bozo who cannot even run a sharp campaign?

To be fair to Noynoy, I think it is really the people that surround him — wankers, drama junkies, hopeless romantics, and sentimentality-imprisoned losers — that really did him in and ran his campaign aground.

For one thing, there are a lot of leaders out there whose main contribution to his party is almost purely charisma and engagement with his constituency. But the good ones recognise this strength and compensates for whatever shortcoming they may have with the actual technical details of leading a government — or a campaign — by surrounding himself with SMART people who provide him technical support and advise.

Noynoy Aquino squandered his popularity by surrounding himself with morons who jumped on the popularity and pedigree bandwagon but contributed NOTHING in the way of boosting his credibility to people who apply a bit more of a technical brain. And if we see the smartening up of The Filipino Voter as evidence of hope for a better Philippines, then we should see the fall of Noynoy Aquino as evidence that such a long-shot aspiration is coming to fruition.

As Obi Wan Kenobi say to the bewildered Luke Skywalker in the excellent film Star Wars as they clambered out of the cargo hold of the Millenium Falcon

Who is the bigger fool? The fool or the fools who follow him?

… or something to that effect.

As Mon Casiple (the “expert” quoted by Queen Ellen above) notes in his take on this reversal of fortunes:

It is definitely going to be a tough time ahead for both. Manny villar will have to do more to maintain his momentum while Noynoy Aquino will have to fight tooth and nail to preserve or even expand his lead. The fight will become more interesting as both go into the formal campaign period.

Well let me ask everyone this:

Between a man who made his fortune by his own sweat and resourcefulness (whatever way we choose to “moralise” around how he went about it) and a man who simply sailed into the lap of pedigree and inherited popularity (only to squander it later), which one do you think will step up to embrace said “tough time”?


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16 Responses to Noynoy Aquino's presidential bid: Write off!

  1. rego says:

    ha ha ha nice blog Benigs. and very entertaining at that

  2. BenK says:

    If it were a different candidate, I would be inclined to think that the game’s not over yet and things could still swing back in the other direction. But the rather petulant response to the diving poll numbers — which have not just suddenly dropped but have been consistently trending downwards — is really telling. Whether that response is coming at the direction of the ‘wankers’ or from the man himself really makes no difference, he’s the one in charge.

    For some reason, this all makes me think of a line from a Laurie Anderson song: “I met this guy, and he looked like he might have been a hat-check clerk at an ice rink. Which in fact he turned out to be. And I said, ‘Oh boy. Right again.'”

  3. ChinoF says:

    Dr. Mahar Mangahas himself of SWS said, at no time at all has the actual election results actually been the same as SWS surveys.

  4. homer says:

    Surely the vice-presidential candidate must have wondered whether giving up his presidential bid for this bozo was the right thing to do in the first place. After all, he was the one between the two of them who had a platform and a campaign plan…until Tita Cory passed away.

  5. Makabayan says:


    You also forgot one word: Dolphy.

    He seems to have the “Oprah Effect” or even more.

  6. Fauxx says:

    My favoite word here is “drama junkie”.

    I also liked the [Mar Roxas: FFFFFUUUUU] angle from the comments. But I don’t think he would be that affected since he has a good standing (and a better place) in the VP.

    But then again, his campaign started depending on teh 1337 fiscaliz0r when he started. So it leaves him very very vulnerable once the latter nosedives into the rear end of the surveys.

    *Keeping my fingers crossed.*

  7. benign0 says:

    Thanks rego. Indeed, BenK, he started out with a huge lead, did nothing to hedge it, saw his lead progressively erode and now that it hit this milestone dismisses the reality instead of taking it as cue to re-evaluate his campaign strategy. That kind of style is not even fit for an administrator, much more a true leader.

    And indeed, as you say, ChinoF, you can interpret those survey results in two ways. Either (a) it is erroneous in favour of Villar or (b) it is erroneous in favour of Noynoy. And besides, people have been known to apply a different state of mind while taking surveys that is inconsistent in what they are inclined to do in a real situation. There have been studies that proved this and practitioners of market research are quite familiar with these findings.

    Kawawang Mar. He is the biggest loser here. Before Noynoy, Pinoy politics was his oyster. Now he plays second fiddle to a loser.

    • ChinoF says:

      Mar must really be saying to Noy, “Ano, hindi tayo mananalo? Papatayin talaga kita, pare.” :))

      Even if the surveys are accurate, it’s even possible the survey takers themselves don’t vote, or they change their minds when they vote, etc. Hence, the actual results are really expected to differ from the surveys, and history has proven it. But I won’t blame SWS; they’re just doing their job after all. 😉

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  9. homer says:

    Surely the vice-presidential candidate must have wondered whether giving up his presidential bid for this bozo was the right thing to do in the first place. After all, he was the one between the two of them who had a platform and a campaign plan…until Tita Cory passed away.

  10. deleonrikkie says:

    I don’t think Mar Roxas ever had a chance against the financial and political juggernaut that is Manny Villar. That is why he gave up his presidentiable aspirations to support someone whose popularity he thought would be a good counterweight to Villar’s political war machine. I guess he underestimated the level with which popularity can be bought especially with the kind of demographic the Philippines has. At any rate, he is in a good position to become VP and maybe even president if the MV presidency becomes riddled with scandal and MV’s allies turn against him. This may result in another middle-class people power uprising and the removal of yet another president. MV however, seems smart and hungry enough that he may employ Chavez / Ahmadinejad style tactics to remain in power. Just elucidating a possible nightmare in our country’s future.

    • Parallax says:

      di ba kayo nagsasawa sa people power? it’s like some kind of agimat. you people just believe those stupid surveys and vote based on popularity (it’s not winnability, it’s popularity) and elect people that you’ll just kick out of malacañang people power style kapag ayaw niyo na. instead of voting for someone you feel you’d be eventually mounting an uprising against, why don’t you ignore those damn surveys and use your own heads for a change? select regardless of how “winnable” they’re said to be.

      as to the punditry you’ve volunteered, noynoy and villar aren’t the only ones in the presidential race.

      lastly, i’m not for villar, so i’m not defending him when i say you have a rather playful imagination to assume villar would behave like ahmadinejad. what exactly has ahmadinejad done that villar did as well?

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  12. deleonrikkie says:

    Dick Gordon doesn’t stand a chance. If you haven’t mingled much with the simple majority of our people, I suggest you do so and get a taste of some Ground Truth. The simple masses are turned off just by his appearance and the sound of his voice, even when they don’t understand what is being said. If he himself doesn’t see his lack of appeal, then he is delusional and that is a dangerous characteristic in a leader.

    We have a plethora of other candidates but all they serve is to further split the already divided middle class vote. I voted for Roco during Erap’s election, much good that did the country. However, I was quite proud of being one of those who pushed Erap out of the presidency, knowing full well that Arroyo was just a lesser evil. The problem with these people power revolutions is that afterwards, it’s participants hunker down to the task of living and fending for our families. We expect our leaders to be some sort of God/superhero who will take care of all the problems of society for us. We become confrontational only when pushed to the brink.

    Aristotle said that the key to a proper working democracy is an educated and participatory middle-class! (maybe I paraphrased a bit) Alas, most of the Filipino middle-class is now out of the country and not too keen on steering their country’s future. We are stuck with a disproportionately large and gullible lower class who make comments like “Iboboto ko siya! Nagbibigay siya ng bahay! Baka ako mabigyan!” and an oligarchical higher class who have no interest in changing the status quo because they profit handsomely from it. If the already depleted middle class voice is further cracked by division, then we will drown and be swept away.

    I just found this article on the net regarding Gibo and Gordon being just decoy candidates. You may want to take a look:

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